Eurozone Blues

The European Union is, in my humble opinion, a very poor political system. This is surprising, because European stats usually have a political system that makes me drool at the mouth. Of course it varies from country to country, but the time that I’ve spent studying the German political system has left me impressed.

                In nearly every realm the European Union is a failure. The one exception that I would point out is that it has stabilized relations in the area and made a European war an impossible notion to consider. For this reason it does deserve its Nobel Peace Prize. Not even I would want to take that away. However, in the areas of foreign policy and economics, the EU has fallen short of its mighty goals.

                I don’t need to give examples to have you believe me that the past few years have been a rollercoaster for the Eurozone. Everything that happened here in the US was worse here in Europe. Banking crises in Ireland and Britain (including the run on Northern Rock, something that didn’t happen in the US), debt crises in Greece, crazy national elections in Greece and Italy, sinking economic growth even in the core countries, and more have led the European project on a detour nobody wanted it to go down.

                The problem with the Euro is that every country has their finger on the button to blow the whole system sky-high. This button can be pressed by incompetency, voters who decide to elect someone radical, or a naughty banking sector. If a nation is going to be a part of a wider currency union, there needs to be a strong federal government. The EU certainly does have power, but its power is mostly in regulations. National politicians like Merkel, Hollande, and Cameron hold the real power in the system. Just look at the President of the Council of the European Union. Don’t know who it is? I don’t blame you. The reason is that a person doesn’t hold the position, but rather a country – currently Ireland. The President of the European Council might have some power in the system, but he’s chosen by heads of national governments. Can you see why all the power hasn’t moved into the EU?

                The EU needs a new system of government. I’m not saying the United States is a perfect example, not even close. The two party system we have here in the US chokes off cooperation, conversation, and creates a rigid line in the sand. Whichever side you’re on is filled with angels, and the other side is filled with villains. Switch sides and you’ll find the same thing. The EU is still young, and there’s still time for a makeover.

                This new EU should have an expanded role and an expanded budget. It should be responsible for defense, welfare, and health care. If it can take these big issues it won’t be such a big deal if the government defaults. It won’t leave pensioners out in the cold or crash the banking system (because it will be smaller). The federal fiscal policy will be matched with a federal monetary policy instead of many national fiscal policies matched with a federal fiscal policy. The way the system is now, the small countries that find themselves in trouble are unable to do much but cut spending and let their economy bathe in the waters of reverse stimulus spending. 

Is There Something Wrong With the Foreign Service?

           I enjoy blogs by good authors. Honestly, if more famous intellectuals and theorists maintained blogs they would be a whole lot more interesting. Luckily there are a few who do, and I enjoy much of what they write. Paul Krugman, Thomas Ricks, and Stephan Walt are some of my favorites. One recent post by the IR theorist Stephan Walt included a mention about the US Foreign Service, and I disagreed with most of what he said.

“We are so afraid that our career diplomats will "go native" or develop "localitis," that we discourage them from developing deep regional expertise and instead rotate them around the globe on a frequent basis. There is something to be said for gaining a global perspective, of course, but it also means that unlike some of our rivals, we won't have many diplomats with deep linguistic expertise or lots of in-depth experience in the societies in which they are operating. Yet we then expect them to hold their own against their local counterparts, or against diplomats from other countries whose knowledge and training in particular areas is more extensive.”[1]

First, it is important to remember that Foreign Service Officers are not simply responsible for their own country, but also that country’s relations with the entire world. Most Foreign Service Officers know multiple languages not because they are constantly moved around, but rather because they are responsible for more than just their own country.

            Beyond that, from my experience in the Department of State, I have not found his views to be correct. The men and women of the Foreign Service are experts, and while they might move around every three years, they often stay in the same region and build expertise. Many in Germany have never been stationed outside of Europe, and the Foreign Service uses its employees where it needs them.  If someone doesn’t speak the language or know the culture, it is unlikely they will be stationed there.

            The biggest impression my time at the Embassy is how much each person knows and has done. Each person has stories that could easily fill a book. Sadly, public relations miss out on some of these stories due to the nature of the job. They are all amazing, fun, brilliant people whom I have been given the honor to serve with. While I look forward to going home and having all the benefits that come with it, I will be sad when I leave.

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[1] http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/03/04/is_this_any_way_to_run_us_foreign_policy

Alternative Politics - German Democracy in the US

Coalitions in Germany
In Germany there is a very different system from the one we have in America. In Germany there are more than two parties and coalitions govern together. There has only been one point in modern German history where one party won without a coalition partner. Each voter get two votes. One vote goes for your local representative. There are 299 electoral districts in Germany and 598+ members in parliament. The other 299 come from the second vote. This vote goes toward a party. The 299 members for the second vote are broken up proportionally by party so that if you won 5% in the vote you'll get 5% of the TOTAL Bundestag seats. Sometimes the number of wins for a party in the first vote and the number they deserve from the second vote don't line up. This means there can be more than 598 members of the Bundestag. A recent electoral reform has changed the system, so the number of seats, despite the size of the Bundestag, will always be proportional to the second vote.


Here's how the seats were distributed in 2009. The next German election will be in 2013.



Let's break this down then shall we?

1st - the CDU and the CSU are really one party. The CSU is simply the local version of the CDU in Bavaria. It's like how the Democratic party in Minnesota is the Democratic Farm and Labor Party, and not simply the Democratic Party.

2nd - The SPD and the CDU are known as the Volksparteien, or "people's parties". These two parties have a wide appeal and have traditionally commanded a large swath of the electorate. In 1976 they had over 90%, leading some to believe that the Germans had created a two party system like America. Things certainly have changed since then. The SPD is expected to recover in 2013.

3rd - The FDP is the liberal party in the traditional sense, and stands for free market principles. It, and the two Volksparteien, were the only three parties for a long time. The FDP might have been small, but it could be a kingmaker, choosing which party would rule. Since then the Greens, a party concerned with minority rights and the environment, and the Left Party part of the old Communist Party in East Germany, and most recently the Pirates, a party that wants to decriminalize internet piracy and create government transparency, have emerged as important parties as well.

4th - The Pirates are relatively tiny and their proverbial ship is sinking, and the Left Party is nobody's friend when it comes to building coalitions. This has led to a sort of alliance between the four remaining parties. The FDP and the CDU stand on one side against the SPD and the Greens. This means that while your party might be doing very well, you still have to pay attention to your preferred coalition partner. The CDU is polling around 40%, but its ally, the FDP, is only polling 4%. That's a problem because you have to get above 5% in the second vote to even get a slice of the pie that way. The 5% hurdle will be a major obstacle for the FDP in the coming election.

Coalitions in America

What would America look like if it had the German system? What would the American coalition system look like? I'm guessing the first vote would look very much like the house of representatives map for the US currently looks. The Democratic Party and the Republican Party would not go away. There would most likely still be Volksparteien in the United States. However, these parties would have factions that may break off and form their own parties, even if they would still want to be in coalitions with the Republicans or the Democrats.

The above diagram represents what I feel could be the American political system at its most diverse. More likely than not, I feel that America would develop a system with SEVEN major political parties. On the Left there would be the Democrats, with two parties spliting off: The Progressive Party and the American Far Left Party (communist or socialist they would stand for nationalizations).  Meanwhile, the Progressive Party would act as the junior partner to the Democrats, using their coalition partner status to make sure that progressives as a whole are represented in the government in key positions. Imagine if Obama had to pick someone radical to be a major member of his cabinet. That's the power of the minor party in a coalition.

The Far left would be like The Left Party in Germany, get a small percent of the vote, and not do all that much. The Pirate Party would also probably not be a good coalition member unless it was able to develop mainstream issues beyond internet piracy decriminalization.

On the right, I feel the Libertarian Party would certainly split off with Ron (or Rand) Paul leading the way.  From there I feel that the Republican party would either break down into several groups or stay together. The most likely scenario is that the Tea Party Conservatives and the Religious Conservatives would maintain the core of the Republican party while the Business Republicans would split off into their own party.

It's easy to see this system starting to mix and match coalitions. Depending on the numbers, there could be quite a few combinations available. For instance, it might be possible to form a Democrat-Business Republican coalition. Other parties that I might not be thinking about which could upset everything(one that comes to mind are local parties that represent a region......*cough* *cough* Texas). One thing for sure is that American elections would become a good deal more interesting.....Who would you vote for?