In Germany there is a very different system from the one we have in America. In Germany there are more than two parties and coalitions govern together. There has only been one point in modern German history where one party won without a coalition partner. Each voter get two votes. One vote goes for your local representative. There are 299 electoral districts in Germany and 598+ members in parliament. The other 299 come from the second vote. This vote goes toward a party. The 299 members for the second vote are broken up proportionally by party so that if you won 5% in the vote you'll get 5% of the TOTAL Bundestag seats. Sometimes the number of wins for a party in the first vote and the number they deserve from the second vote don't line up. This means there can be more than 598 members of the Bundestag. A recent electoral reform has changed the system, so the number of seats, despite the size of the Bundestag, will always be proportional to the second vote.
Here's how the seats were distributed in 2009. The next German election will be in 2013.
Let's break this down then shall we?
1st - the CDU and the CSU are really one party. The CSU is simply the local version of the CDU in Bavaria. It's like how the Democratic party in Minnesota is the Democratic Farm and Labor Party, and not simply the Democratic Party.
2nd - The SPD and the CDU are known as the Volksparteien, or "people's parties". These two parties have a wide appeal and have traditionally commanded a large swath of the electorate. In 1976 they had over 90%, leading some to believe that the Germans had created a two party system like America. Things certainly have changed since then. The SPD is expected to recover in 2013.
3rd - The FDP is the liberal party in the traditional sense, and stands for free market principles. It, and the two Volksparteien, were the only three parties for a long time. The FDP might have been small, but it could be a kingmaker, choosing which party would rule. Since then the Greens, a party concerned with minority rights and the environment, and the Left Party part of the old Communist Party in East Germany, and most recently the Pirates, a party that wants to decriminalize internet piracy and create government transparency, have emerged as important parties as well.
4th - The Pirates are relatively tiny and their proverbial ship is sinking, and the Left Party is nobody's friend when it comes to building coalitions. This has led to a sort of alliance between the four remaining parties. The FDP and the CDU stand on one side against the SPD and the Greens. This means that while your party might be doing very well, you still have to pay attention to your preferred coalition partner. The CDU is polling around 40%, but its ally, the FDP, is only polling 4%. That's a problem because you have to get above 5% in the second vote to even get a slice of the pie that way. The 5% hurdle will be a major obstacle for the FDP in the coming election.
Coalitions in America
What would America look like if it had the German system? What would the American coalition system look like? I'm guessing the first vote would look very much like the house of representatives map for the US currently looks. The Democratic Party and the Republican Party would not go away. There would most likely still be Volksparteien in the United States. However, these parties would have factions that may break off and form their own parties, even if they would still want to be in coalitions with the Republicans or the Democrats.
The above diagram represents what I feel could be the American political system at its most diverse. More likely than not, I feel that America would develop a system with SEVEN major political parties. On the Left there would be the Democrats, with two parties spliting off: The Progressive Party and the American Far Left Party (communist or socialist they would stand for nationalizations). Meanwhile, the Progressive Party would act as the junior partner to the Democrats, using their coalition partner status to make sure that progressives as a whole are represented in the government in key positions. Imagine if Obama had to pick someone radical to be a major member of his cabinet. That's the power of the minor party in a coalition.
The Far left would be like The Left Party in Germany, get a small percent of the vote, and not do all that much. The Pirate Party would also probably not be a good coalition member unless it was able to develop mainstream issues beyond internet piracy decriminalization.
On the right, I feel the Libertarian Party would certainly split off with Ron (or Rand) Paul leading the way. From there I feel that the Republican party would either break down into several groups or stay together. The most likely scenario is that the Tea Party Conservatives and the Religious Conservatives would maintain the core of the Republican party while the Business Republicans would split off into their own party.
It's easy to see this system starting to mix and match coalitions. Depending on the numbers, there could be quite a few combinations available. For instance, it might be possible to form a Democrat-Business Republican coalition. Other parties that I might not be thinking about which could upset everything(one that comes to mind are local parties that represent a region......*cough* *cough* Texas). One thing for sure is that American elections would become a good deal more interesting.....Who would you vote for?
(Really) quick 2 cents:
ReplyDeleteI have written about the dynamics of the current American party system before. To recap that effort in a sentence, the remarkable thing about American politics today is just how vitriolic it is despite the fact that the two parties agree on most important things. I don't think either party takes its own ideology very seriously, save as a means to unite against the opposition and keep its own power.
Some of the things both parties agree on:
*Incredible security theater
*A strong role for the American government in holding up U.S. economy - particularly sectors "Too Big Too Fail" (e.g. Corporate welfare)
*Subsidizing Wall Street
*National security>Individual rights (think PATRIOT)
*Interventionist foreign policy with CT/limited war operations being the main tool.
*American global hegemony, mostly maintained through "neoliberal" interventions in other economies and substantial military assistance
*Eclipse of the legislative branch in favor of an increasingly large/powerful executive branch. No real commitment to separation of powers.
*Casual shirking of rule of law & governmental transparency.
*Dominance of the lobbying class, and the outsourcing of policy making to congressional/think tank/business wonks
*Free trade
Today these are all very bipartisan things. It is interesting to see who does not agree with them - the Occupy faction of the left and the Tea party/Libertarian faction on the right. There are a multitude of issues where these two groups agree (Bail-outs, drones, growing executive power...). Both also tend to hate their parties almost as much as they hate the other guys. Both readily acknowledge that the system itself is corrupt. They are the ones most likely to form their own parties - and as funny as it may sound, these two groups, supposedly on the opposite side of the political spectrum, have just as much in common with each other as they do with the folks in Washington who claim to represent them.
Except libertarians want to reduce and limit how much the government can spend and how much power it has. The Occupy faction wants to impose its will on others by rapidly and significantly increasing the amount of money the government spends and the power politicians and bureaucrats wield. Consequently, the are fundamentally opposed to one another.
DeleteWorse yet would be *cough* *cough* Minnesotans who hate independence, individual liberty, and would happily march along as their "betters" in government told them exactly what to do, when, where, and how. After all, thinking is so difficult to do.
ReplyDelete